Manager, Forecasting and Modelling
Ministry of Education
6d ago
source :
  • Fixed-term management role until February 2023
  • Help shape the future of Education

    He mea tārai e mātou te mātauranga kia rangatira ai, kia mana taurite ai ōna huanga

    We work to shape an education system that delivers equitable and excellent outcomes

    At Te Tāhuhu o te Mātauranga - Ministry of Education, we work to provide services and support nationally, regionally and locally to the education sector, and in some cases, directly to ākonga and whānau.

    We help shape the policies, settings and performance of the education system for early learning, schooling and tertiary.

    We do this by building relationships and understanding the needs of those who receive our services.

    We are making significant changes to how we deliver our mahi by doing the following :

  • Taking practical action to give effect toteTiritio Waitangi
  • Giving priority to regional and local voice
  • Delivering greater responsiveness, accessibility and integrated services and support
  • Improving feedback loops and information flows
  • Our organisation is made up of talented and committed people across Aotearoa from a wide range of backgrounds and cultures.

    While we work in different groups and on different things, we all strive every day to make the biggest difference we can for every child, young person and adult student in our education system.

    About our group and team

    Te Mahau sits within Te Tāhuhu o te Mātauranga Ministry of Education and is tasked with providing responsive, accessible, and integrated support for the education sector and the others we work with so they can deliver equitable and excellent education for ākonga and their whānau.

    Te Pae Aronui is a newly formed group within Te Mahau. In Te Pae Aronui we use information, insights and service design functions to help Te Mahau frontline groups design and deliver services for the education sector.

    We service and support the frontline groups and play an integration role between the enabling functions and our frontline services.

    This is a great opportunity to join our new and exciting group as we move to focus our efforts more toward more flexible, responsive services for the Education Sector.

    The Forecasting and Modelling team is responsible for analysis that supports Te Tāhuhu’s Early Learning and Schooling policy and operational functions.

    The team works across the organisation to promote the effective use of evidence in policy design, investment decision-making and operational implementation.

    Mō tēnei tūranga - About this role

    This role is responsible for leading a team that operates as a centre of expertise and excellence in forward-looking analysis to inform many of the most critical decisions taken by the Government and others in the education system.

    The work is financially-focused, but requires an understanding of education system policy settings, dynamics and drivers in the external environment.

    Key responsibilities include the following :

  • Delivering high quality forecasts of future public expenditure for large components of the $15 billion that the government invests annually in the schooling and early childhood education system
  • Working with colleagues across Te Tāhuhu, Te Mahau and beyond on cutting-edge policy development, utilising our expertise in policy costing and impact analysis
  • Undertaking operational rate-setting and eligibility calculations, to ensure that schools and early childhood education services are appropriately funded
  • The Manager’s role is to lead, support and inspire the nine analysts in the team, to work with stakeholders across the Ministry to plan a work programme that aligns with the Ministry’s vision and the Government’s priorities, and to oversee the effective and efficient delivery of work.

    Please note there is further information in the attached Job Description.

    Mōhou ake - About you

    To thrive in this role you will hold a dual passion for the following :

  • The potential of evidence and analysis to contribute to better decisions that deliver equitable and excellent outcomes
  • The opportunity afforded to Managers to build and maintain positive and productive cultures and operating models that enable all team members to grow and succeed
  • Managers in our group are expected to prioritise people leadership. Your number one responsibility will be to actively support the development of staff members, and to foster a culture in which everyone’s voice is heard and valued, wellbeing is paramount, and inclusive practices drive continuous improvement and high performance.

    You will have an opportunity to contribute to our wider management cohort in leading the development of group strategy and improvement initiatives.

  • The advice we tender influences decisions that impact the public finances by hundreds of millions each year. The team’s credibility relies on collaboration and awareness of policy, operational and environmental developments;
  • and also the robustness of processes that ensure reliability. As the leader you will model these behaviours and ensure that processes are embedded, and standards maintained.

    You will need to exercise sound judgement and be comfortable navigating complexity and ambiguity sometimes under time pressure.

    To be impactful in this role you will require excellent communication skills which you apply to understanding stakeholders’ needs and translating technical information into clear and easily understood implications.

    You will have a team of highly capable analysts to undertake the detailed number-crunching, but you will enjoy overseeing and guiding this work if you are highly numerate and comfortable dealing with financial information, can use strategic thinking and communication skills to build bridges between complementary political, technical and operational perspectives, and have a flair for coming up with innovative analytical approaches to novel challenges.

    Detailed knowledge of the education system and / or forecasting and financial analysis is not a pre-requisite, but would be a significant advantage.

    This is a fixed-term opportunity until February 2023, whilst the permanent post-holder is on secondment to the Group Manager position to which this post reports.

    This creates a safe and supportive environment for a Manager who doesn’t have previous experience in this subject and / or functional area to learn.

    However, it will be your team and you will have the scope and autonomy to lead in a manner that is authentic to you and to take the team in new directions in response to our ever-evolving context.

    This opportunity could suit an experienced people leader who is looking to explore a new area and contribute to some vital outcomes.

    It could also be a great opportunity for an experienced analyst to get a first taste of people leadership. We are open to considering fixed-term and / or secondment arrangements for both internal and external applicants.

    Kua rite koe mō tēnei mahi? Are you ready to make a difference?

    We need to reflect the diverse communities we serve, so we welcome applications from individuals of all backgrounds, orientations, and identities.

    As an organisation, we are committed to building racial equity and excellence in the education sector.

    We provide flexible working environments where everyone feels relevant, valued and supported. So, if working from home and / or having a flexible start and finish to the day will help with this, we can usually make it happen.

    We’d love to hear what this might look like for you, so feel free to outline this in your Cover Letter.

    In your cover letter we’d like to know the following :

  • about you, your values, your whakapapa
  • your interest and motivations for this role
  • the abilities, strengths, personal attributes and diverse perspectives you will bring to the role and this organisation
  • The Ministry invites applications from fully vaccinated people or people with a valid medical exemption (under the COVID-19 Public Health Response (Vaccinations) Order 2021).

    We will require evidence of your vaccination status, or your medical exemption, at the pre-employment stage of our recruitment process.

    For further information, please contact Sam Jolly or Kay Ellis at tepaearonui.recruitment

    Applications close at 11 : 59pm on Wednesday, 11 May 2022.


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